Over the past couple of months, cryptoasset prices have grown more stable, consolidating into a narrower price band. As volatility fell, analysis suggested an explosive move was imminent in the medium term.

In late March, cryptoassets finally broke through the upper level of this price band, although macroeconomic uncertainty regarding the Ukraine-Russia war in Eastern Europe still troubles the market. While geopolitical tension and conflicting price action make it difficult to anticipate where the market is headed, on-chain data provides a clearer view of underlying crypto fundamentals.

Kraken Intelligence’s latest report, Chopsolidation, analyzes on-chain metrics and indicators to explore network demand and supply dynamics that help shed light on where the crypto market stands today and what may lie ahead.

Supply dynamics

On-chain metrics such as HODL waves, exchange net flows, and Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL) produced mixed signals for BTC, suggesting that long-term holding demand is dissipating, while BTC’s net outflows accelerated.

ETH also posted net outflows in March, decreasing their immediately marketable supply following net inflows over the past few months. This data signals that market participants may be moving their BTC and ETH into cold storage for long-term holding.

State of the market

According to several on-chain indicators, sentiment is potentially bullish for BTC and ETH, though it’s still too early to tell. 

While BTC’s Spent Out Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates that market participants are selling BTC at a profit after an extended period of losses, ETH’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score suggests that recent price action has lifted the asset out of oversold territory. 

Want to learn more about on-chain activity in March and what’s ahead? Download the Kraken Intelligence report Chopsolidation where the team explores crypto fundamentals and on-chain data that shaped the market in March.