Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released the Bitcoin Volatility Report for October, 2019.
- After leaping +43% to a 7-week high of $10,580 in under 48 hours, bitcoin’s annualized volatility climbed to a 10-week high of 75.8%.
- Bitcoin’s velocity was the only tracked metric to fall in October as volatility, price, and volume all closed higher, bouncing off of 5-month lows set in September.
- Pressure from US regulators and legislators on Libra and TON, two high profile digital currency projects, set the tone for much of October; China’s President Xi urged the country to “seize the opportunity” afforded by blockchain, lifting market sentiment into month-end.
- The US lowered interest rates and announced a new bond buying program, while the ECB left negative interest rates unchanged. US-China trade relations remain in the spotlight, with suggestions that the two parties are engaged in a multi-phase trade deal. Concurrently, the IMF cut global growth estimates slightly and resurfaced concerns over default risk in the non-financial corporate debt markets under a major economic downturn scenario.
- Price and volatility trends in October suggest that bitcoin is tracking a 2015 trend that may represent an inflection point. Further, based on bitcoin price and volatility observations dating back to 2011, November may turn out to be more volatile than October.
Where to Next?
We may be due for further increases in volatility in the weeks and/or months to come, though a lack of hard catalysts suggests momentum will have to carry the day.