Pro trader Dentoshi and Kraken VP Growth Matt Howells-Barby were back for Episode 16 of Trading Spaces — and “quiet weeks” are officially over.

TL;DR

In this episode of Trading Spaces:

• The move that scared traders wasn’t just the drop — it was the speed. BTC cut through multiple support zones with almost no meaningful pause.
  
• Den’s base case: a bounce/consolidation first, then a potential “drip lower” unless macro conditions improve materially.
  
• Bottoms are usually a time game, not a price game. Major bottoms tend to come after weeks/months of boredom, not days of chaos.
  
• Weekly RSI is oversold, but that’s not a buy signal by itself. In prior cycles, RSI dipping sub-30 happened months before the eventual bottom.
  
• ETH looks structurally worse than BTC right now, with key supports sliced and a “range-y” structure that’s harder to trust.
  
• HYPE is the notable outlier showing isolated strength, but it’s now pressing into heavy resistance — and Den wants a clean reclaim before getting bullish.
  

Macro backdrop: why this didn’t start in crypto

Matt framed this week’s selloff as an extension of a broader risk reset that spilled into crypto — not a purely crypto-native event.

Key ingredients:

• AI/mega-cap volatility and “Are we out ahead of our skis?” jitters
  
• Huge capex expectations (and the market questioning risk appetite)
  
• Rotation out of risk hitting multiple assets in the same window
  
• BTC positioned at the tail end of the risk curve — meaning it absorbed the shock when the market got defensive
  

Matt also pointed to the ETF tape as a pressure valve: IBIT printed its biggest volume day ever (by a wide margin), and the flow skew leaned heavily toward sell pressure.

Bitcoin: the break was clean — so treat bounces like bounces

Den’s first read was straightforward: this wasn’t a gentle breakdown. It was a support liquidation.

What stood out:

• Three-day candle closes with minimal wicks
  
• Support levels blown through with almost no reaction
  
• Even major historical reference points (including the 2021 ATH zone) didn’t produce meaningful slowing

Den’s playbook from prior bears

Den compared the current structure to typical bear sequencing:

1. Leg down
   
2. Consolidation
   
3. Break down again
   
4. Repeat until the market transitions into a long, dead, low-volume floor

Her key point: we don’t have the “dead zone” yet. And without that time-based bleed, calling “the bottom” is usually premature.

So… are we going lower?

Den’s “gun-to-head” view:

• Near-term: a bounce is plausible (especially after such a fast drop)
  
• Medium-term: likely chop/consolidation
  
• Then: another leg lower is on the table unless macro meaningfully improves
  

If you bought the low, Den’s advice was blunt: be conservative with targets. In counter-trend environments, the market can give you a sharp rebound — and then erase it just as fast.

Weekly RSI: oversold can stay oversold

Matt addressed a common reflex traders had this week: “Weekly RSI is below 30 — it’s oversold, so we bounce.”

Yes, weekly RSI dipped into oversold territory — but he emphasized the historical nuance:

• In June 2022, weekly RSI moved into oversold well before the true cycle lows.
  
• Same idea in 2018: oversold was a condition, not a timing tool.
  

What matters more than the first oversold print is how RSI behaves afterward — whether it begins to build momentum/higher lows that align with broader basing structure.

Bottom line: RSI can help frame the regime, but it doesn’t front-run the bottom by itself.

“Real bottoms are quiet” (and we’re not there)

Matt added a non-technical signal he watches every cycle:

• Early declines = panic, nonstop discussion, everyone glued to charts
  
• True bottoming = silence
  
  • Participation dries up
    
  • No one cares
    
  • “Bitcoin is dead” becomes background noise
    
  • Then… a tiny green candle feels euphoric because anything happening feels exciting
    

Their shared view: the market has seen capitulation — but it hasn’t seen indifference yet.

Cycle levels & confluence: where traders are looking if the bleed continues

Den highlighted two recurring “map references” traders keep on the radar:

• Prior-cycle retracement behavior into a key band (she referenced a historical “FIB area” zone many traders watch)
  
• A longer-term weekly MA ribbon (200/300) that has acted as support historically — which, on her charting, clusters around the high $40Ks to $50Ks area

Important framing from Den: this is not a prophecy. It’s a confluence map — the kind of zone that becomes relevant if the market continues to unwind.

Ethereum: “it doesn’t look good” — but it’s still a range story

ETH was the bleaker segment of the episode.

Den’s read:

• ETH didn’t follow the same “clean cycle behavior” this time
  
• It’s been moving more like a range asset
  
• No significant new highs were made this cycle
  
• Multiple significant supports were sliced immediately

The only constructive angle Den offered was conditional:

If ETH continues to behave like a range, traders may be able to treat it like one — but right now it’s battling lower timeframe resistance, and conviction is thin.

Matt’s broader point was also key: it’s hard to justify sustained alt exposure when ETH looks like this, because ETH tends to be a major pillar for broader alt strength.

The outlier: HYPE’s isolated strength (but don’t ignore the overhead)

Despite the risk-off tape, one chart kept showing up: HYPE.

Matt admitted it’s been “mystifying” — and flagged the question many traders have:

• How much of this is real demand vs. structural support (e.g., buybacks/mechanics)?
  
• Why is it holding up while so much else is bleeding?
  

Den’s technical stance was cautious but clear:

• HYPE has shown impressive strength off the lows
  
• But it’s now pressing into heavy resistance
  
• She wouldn’t get excited without a convincing break and reclaim above the key overhead level
  

If it fails there, Den’s concern is that the move may end up looking like a deviation before continuation lower.

How to think about trades here: process over prediction

A few risk-management principles kept coming up throughout the episode:

• Respect broken structure. When levels slice cleanly, you don’t treat rebounds like a fresh bull trend.
  
• If you’re trading a bounce, trade it like a bounce. Smaller targets. Faster decision-making.
  
• Time matters. Big regime changes rarely resolve in a week.
  
• Let the market prove it. Reclaims, EMA flips, and sustained holds matter more than hope.
  

What to watch (and listen to) next

First, listen to the full Trading Spaces here:

Then, looking forward, both Matt and Den framed the near-term as: bounce potential, but fragile structure.

So key watch items are:

• Does BTC stabilize and consolidate, or does it try (and fail) to reclaim lost levels quickly?
  
• Does ETH regain any meaningful structure, or does it keep behaving like “dead money” in a broken range?
  
• Can HYPE break and hold above resistance — or does it roll over and lose its isolated-strength status?

Stay close to @krakenfx, @krakenpro, and @Dentoshi for the next session and clips from this one.