| Kraken Intelligence

Bitcoin Volatility Report for November 2019

Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released the Bitcoin Volatility Report for November, 2019.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s volatility fell to a 2-month low of 43.6% before advancing to a final November print of 51.2%, a -32.5% decline month-over-month.
  • Monthly trading volumes dropped -13% and the price of bitcoin fell -18% to $7,559, up from an intraday 6-month low of $6,525 on November 25th.
  • The 5 largest altcoins by market capitalization were near-perfectly correlated with bitcoin on a 1-month time horizon; 6-month correlations were notably more positive.
  • Following a resurgence of crypto speculation and related illegal activities, Chinese regulators clamped down on crypto exchanges and instituted new rules for those seeking to offer security token trading services; the full-court press spooked market participants and weighed heavily on market sentiment.
  • Historical trends in bitcoin’s annualized volatility, monthly returns, and current pattern formation suggest that newfound volatility could creep back into the market if upside momentum begins to emerge.

Where to Next?

In aggregate, historical trends in bitcoin’s volatility & performance, as well as its current pattern formation, suggest that with the right momentum bitcoin could break key technical levels and a multi-month long pattern. Incremental weakness, however, could send bitcoin stumbling down and out of the existing pattern. In either case, such a move would likely mark the beginning of a new trend and cause market participants to adapt accordingly; queue the volatility…