The FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference land on April 29, the same evening that Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all report. Q1 GDP, March PCE, and the Employment Cost Index follow the next morning. This is a stretch that rewards structured preparation.

FOMC rate decision and press conference — April 29

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting on April 29, with the policy statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The current target range sits at 3.50%–3.75%, and futures markets are pricing a hold as the overwhelmingly likely outcome. The decision itself is not the primary focus.

What traders are watching is language. April is not a projections meeting; no dot plot, no updated Summary of Economic Projections. Which means every word in the statement carries more interpretive weight than usual.

The Fed must communicate in an environment where headline inflation has risen on energy, core PCE remains above target, and Q4 2025 GDP came in at just 0.5%. The question the press conference will attempt to answer is whether the Committee treats the inflation overshoot as temporary or as a reason to hold rates higher for longer into the second half of 2026.

If the statement introduces more hawkish language on inflation persistence, rate-sensitive assets including digital currencies may respond accordingly; if the tone is read as keeping later-2026 cuts alive, the reaction may run in the other direction.

Historically, non-projections meetings with clear holds have produced moves driven entirely by tone rather than headline decision.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and all USD-denominated spot and margin pairs.

Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate — April 30

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its first official read on Q1 2026 US economic growth on Thursday, April 30. This advance estimate is the earliest of three rounds and the one markets respond to most sharply.

The context is loaded. Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to just 0.5% on the third estimate, from 1.4% at the advance stage, a significant deterioration that only became clear in retrospect.

Q1 sits in a more disrupted environment: oil near $100 through much of the quarter, a reset tariff regime following the IEEPA ruling, and business confidence data that began reflecting Iran-conflict-related headwinds from late February onward.

The GDP print arrives simultaneously with PCE and the Employment Cost Index, the morning after the FOMC decision. Traders will be interpreting all three data points through whatever framework Powell’s press conference established the previous afternoon.

Historically, macro-sensitive assets including digital currencies have responded to GDP surprises in both directions; the size of any move has varied significantly with the prevailing rate environment.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and USD-denominated spot and margin pairs on Kraken Pro.

PCE inflation, Personal Income and Outlays (March) — April 30

March Personal Income and Outlays (which contains the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) releases at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 30, simultaneously with the GDP print. Traders absorb growth and inflation data in a single moment.

The most recent core PCE reading came in at 2.7%, above the Fed’s 2% target. Two factors make the March reading potentially more difficult: oil prices near $100 passed through to consumer energy costs during the survey period, and tariff-related goods price increases are beginning to reach end consumers.

The Fed’s rate path for the rest of 2026 depends substantially on whether core PCE shows renewed upward momentum or holds near the prior reading. If Q1 GDP is weak and core PCE is elevated, the combination tightens the policy constraint; growth is slowing but inflation is not, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to respond to either problem.

Historically, rate-sensitive assets have responded to this kind of data combination with elevated volatility.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and margin pairs on Kraken Pro.

Employment Cost Index Q1 2026 — April 30

The Employment Cost Index, also released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 30, measures the quarterly change in total compensation across all civilian workers. Q4 2025 came in at 0.7% quarterly and 3.4% annually.

The ECI is distinct from other wage measures in that it controls for changes in the mix of workers and jobs, making it the Fed’s most reliable read on structural wage pressure. For that reason, the Fed has treated it as one of the most important single data points in assessing whether inflation is re-anchoring or remaining sticky above target.

A Q1 print above 0.8% quarterly, arriving alongside a soft GDP and elevated PCE reading, would be the data configuration most likely to delay any Fed rate adjustment through the summer.

Traders monitoring rate probabilities for the June meeting should treat the ECI as potentially the most consequential number in a very busy morning.

Relevant markets: all rate-sensitive assets on Kraken Pro, including spot and margin pairs.

Tesla Q1 2026 earnings — April 22, after close

Tesla reports Q1 2026 results tonight. Q1 production came in at 408,386 vehicles and deliveries at 358,023. Street consensus sits at approximately $0.37 EPS on $22.71 billion revenue, though some analyst estimates sit meaningfully below that.

The more consequential question on tonight’s call is capital allocation. Media reports have described Tesla in early-stage conversations with suppliers around a large-scale AI compute facility (referred to in reports as “Terafab”) that would represent a substantial expansion beyond Tesla’s existing $20 billion 2026 capex guide. Tesla has not confirmed the scope or timeline of this project in any official filing.

If the call includes disclosure on the scale of AI infrastructure ambition, traders will be assessing the balance sheet and cash flow implications alongside an auto division already managing elevated inventory following the Q1 delivery miss. Crypto markets have historically shown correlation with broad technology sentiment during periods of equity volatility.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD and ETH/USD as broad risk proxies on Kraken Pro.

Deribit Monthly BTC/ETH Options Expiry — April 24

The Deribit monthly BTC and ETH options expiry falls on Friday, April 24, the last Friday of April and the date on which Deribit settles its monthly contracts. This is distinct from the weekly expiry cycle and typically represents a larger volume of open interest resolving simultaneously.

Monthly expiries are associated with increased implied volatility in the days preceding settlement, as traders roll or close positions and market makers adjust hedges. This expiry lands ahead of the macro data and earnings cluster from April 29 onward and traders active in BTC and ETH derivatives should factor the positioning dynamics into their planning for what follows.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot, margin, and futures on Kraken Pro.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon Earnings — April 29, after close

Four of the world’s largest companies report Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday evening, the same day as the FOMC decision. Microsoft (Q3 FY26), Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon deliver results after the close, meaning traders process the Fed’s afternoon communication before the earnings hit.

The shared narrative across all four is AI capital expenditure and whether it is producing commensurate revenue growth. Microsoft guided Azure constant-currency growth at 37–38% for Q3 following 39% in Q2, against a quarterly capex rate that has risen sharply year-over-year.

Alphabet’s 2026 capex guide has been described as approximately double 2025 levels, while Meta disclosed a $115–$135 billion full-year capex plan that was nearly double its 2025 spend. Each management team will face questions about whether AI monetization is accelerating fast enough to justify the investment trajectory.

For crypto traders, the macro read-across is risk appetite. Historically, a cluster of confident tech earnings guidance has supported broader risk-on conditions; a cluster of misses or cautious capex commentary has coincided with risk-off moves across equities and digital assets. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot and margin pairs on Kraken Pro.

Apple Q2 FY26 Earnings — April 30, after close

Apple reports fiscal Q2 2026 results on Thursday evening, the same day as the macro triple-header. The company guided Q2 revenue growth of 13–16%, implying approximately $107.8 billion to $110.7 billion. Q1 was described as a record quarter.

The Apple call carries a specific signal beyond the headline numbers: services revenue growth and any commentary on tariff impacts to component supply chains. If Apple reaffirms or upgrades guidance in an environment where consumer confidence is below 100 and oil is elevated, it signals that premium consumer demand is holding despite macro headwinds.

If guidance is reduced citing supply chain or demand pressure, the implications extend well beyond Apple.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD and ETH/USD as risk sentiment proxies on Kraken Pro.

Strategy (MSTR) Q1 2026 Earnings — May 5, after close

Strategy reports Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, May 5. The company ended 2025 holding approximately 713,502 BTC and has transitioned to fair-value accounting for its digital asset holdings, meaning quarterly Bitcoin price movements flow directly through to reported earnings and book value.

The primary signal from the Strategy call is continued accumulation intent and whether the company’s equity issuance program remains active. Any change to the BTC accumulation cadence (or commentary on the fair-value accounting implications) would be notable given the scale of Strategy’s holdings relative to circulating supply.

Relevant markets: BTC/USD on Kraken Pro.

Also coming up:

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for April releases Tuesday, April 28, following a March reading in which inflation expectations rose sharply.
• Advance Durable Goods for March releases Wednesday, April 29.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for April — the first full monthly read under current oil and conflict conditions — releases Friday, May 1.
• JOLTS March job openings and ISM Services PMI for April both release Tuesday, May 5.

Closing context

The sequencing here is what makes the next two weeks worth mapping in advance. The FOMC decision and press conference on April 29 will establish the interpretive frame for the GDP, PCE, and ECI data that print the following morning. Apple’s guidance that same Thursday evening closes a 36-hour window in which the growth, inflation, wage, and corporate earnings picture will all update simultaneously.

Knowing in advance what scenarios you are watching for (and which Kraken Pro markets are most directly exposed) is what separates reactive trading from deliberate strategy.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.