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Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released its Bitcoin Volatility Report for March 2020.
- Bitcoin’s annualized volatility broke a 9-month downtrend in March, surging 178%, its highest level since Jan. 14, 2014.
- Bitcoin exhibited a strong positive correlation with the S&P 500 (0.84) and gold (0.75) in March and climbed to a multi-month high; however, history suggests this correlation is far from abnormal. For example, since 2012, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has been greater than 0.70 about 18% of the time.
- On March 12, Bitcoin had its second worst day ever and fell -39%. The sell-off coincided with the World Health Organization declaring the coronavirus a pandemic, the Federal Reserve announcing an injection of $1.5T into the repo market, and a historic dive in U.S. and European stocks.
- When looking as far back as 2011, April is the second best performing month for Bitcoin on average and it has the largest median return.
What to Watch for Next:
- Bitcoin HODLers – So far, they haven’t been phased by the market drop, with data showing 58.4% of the BTC supply hasn’t moved in more than a year.
- Continued pressure on miners – Many were squeezed out of the market in March, resulting in a 20% drop in hashrate.
- Continued volatility – Bitcoin is 48% more volatile in April than March on average.
- Covid-19 – The uncertainty surrounding the spread of the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy will likely keep traditional financial markets on edge, and this fear of the unknown may also trickle into Bitcoin.
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