| Kraken Intelligence

Bitcoin Volatility Report for September 2019

Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released the Bitcoin Volatility Report for September, 2019.

Key Takeaways

  • Notwithstanding bitcoin’s annualized volatility declining -11.8% to 56.6% and setting its 3rd month of declines, volatility surged +47% after touching a monthly & 6-month low of 38% on September 22nd.
  • Bitcoin’s velocity was the only tracked metric that closed higher MoM; comparatively, volatility, price, and volume persisted the prior month’s trend of lower-lows following an overly inspiring 2Q.
  • Irrespective of bitcoin’s performance over the past several months, CME filed two requests with the CFTC that suggest demand for bitcoin exposure remains strong – an increase to the BTC futures position limit and support for BTC options.
  • Despite mixed economic data, interest rate cuts from the ECB & Federal Reserve, the re-entrance of the U.S. Fed into the repo market for the first time in a decade, and little progress in the China-U.S. trade-war, equity markets around the globe nearly all finished higher.
  • Price action in late September suggests that bitcoin has entered into a fractal pattern, which may mean that bitcoin will resume its longer-term trend of higher-highs and elevated levels of volatility.

Where to Next?

The current volatility cycle is moving at a faster pace than previous ones. Additionally, volatility and market values today are markedly higher, driven by a regime shift in late-2017. Though the indicators suggest a bottom may be on the horizon in the volatility trend, we may have a few months to go.